As there are multiple people with multiple claims about God, it is impossible to tell which are deceived and which are of true faith without some supernatural sign signifying the validity of their supernatural claims. 

Without the assurance of more than any man could do, and because it is logical to assume they can’t all be right, all choices must be seen as equally untrustworthy. 

The likelihood of making a wrong choice of religion is greater than choosing the right one. Further reducing the likelihood of choosing the right religion is the possibility that none of them are the correct choice. 

A wrong choice of religion would include wrong instructions on behavior and lead to wrong reasoning. This will lead to more wrong choices for wrong reasons. 

A just God would be more understanding of someone making a wrong choice for the right reasons than someone making a wrong choice for the wrong reasons. 

Because all choices are untrustworthy and uncertain, and because it is more likely to choose a wrong religion than a right one, and because of the likelihood that a real God would be a just God, the safest bet is to not believe in any of the supernatural claims that you have not personally experienced and choose to be a kind and loving person in spite of a lack of belief in supernatural claims.